Are Consumers Willing to Pay to Let Cars Drive for Them? Analyzing Response to Autonomous Vehicles

Ricardo A. Daziano, Mauricio Sarrias, Benjamin Leard
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引用次数: 266

Abstract

Abstract Autonomous vehicles use sensing and communication technologies to navigate safely and efficiently with little or no input from the driver. These driverless technologies will create an unprecedented revolution in how people move, and policymakers will need appropriate tools to plan for and analyze the large impacts of novel navigation systems. In this paper we derive semiparametric estimates of the willingness to pay for automation. We use data from a nationwide online panel of 1260 individuals who answered a vehicle-purchase discrete choice experiment focused on energy efficiency and autonomous features. Several models were estimated with the choice microdata, including a conditional logit with deterministic consumer heterogeneity, a parametric random parameter logit, and a semiparametric random parameter logit. We draw three key results from our analysis. First, we find that the average household is willing to pay a significant amount for automation: about $3500 for partial automation and $4900 for full automation. Second, we estimate substantial heterogeneity in preferences for automation, where a significant share of the sample is willing to pay above $10,000 for full automation technology while many are not willing to pay any positive amount for the technology. Third, our semiparametric random parameter logit estimates suggest that the demand for automation is split approximately evenly between high, modest and no demand, highlighting the importance of modeling flexible preferences for emerging vehicle technology.
消费者愿意花钱让汽车为他们驾驶吗?分析对自动驾驶汽车的反应
自动驾驶汽车使用传感和通信技术,在很少或根本没有驾驶员输入的情况下安全有效地导航。这些无人驾驶技术将为人们的出行方式带来一场前所未有的革命,政策制定者将需要适当的工具来规划和分析新型导航系统的巨大影响。本文导出了自动化支付意愿的半参数估计。我们使用的数据来自全国1260人的在线小组,他们回答了一个汽车购买的离散选择实验,重点是能源效率和自动驾驶功能。使用选择的微数据估计了几种模型,包括具有确定性消费者异质性的条件logit、参数随机参数logit和半参数随机参数logit。我们从分析中得出三个关键结论。首先,我们发现普通家庭愿意为自动化支付大量费用:部分自动化约为3500美元,完全自动化约为4900美元。其次,我们估计了自动化偏好的实质性异质性,其中很大一部分样本愿意为完全自动化技术支付10,000美元以上,而许多人不愿意为该技术支付任何积极的金额。第三,我们的半参数随机参数logit估计表明,对自动化的需求大致均匀地分为高需求、中等需求和无需求,这突出了对新兴汽车技术灵活偏好建模的重要性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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