A DCC-Type Approach for Realized Covariance Modelling With Score-Driven Dynamics

Danilo Vassallo, G. Buccheri, Fulvio Corsi
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Abstract

We propose a class of score-driven realized covariance models where volatilities and correlations are separately estimated. We can thus combine univariate realized volatility models with a recently introduced class of score-driven realized covariance models based on Wishart and matrix-F distributions. The proposed models are computationally simple to estimate in high dimensions and allow complete flexibility in the choice of the univariate specification. Through a Monte-Carlo study, we show that the two-step maximum likelihood procedure provides accurate parameter estimates in small samples. Empirically, we find that the proposed models outperform joint estimations, with forecasting gains that become more significant as dimension increases.
分数驱动动态协方差建模的dcc型实现方法
我们提出了一类分数驱动的已实现协方差模型,其中波动性和相关性分别估计。因此,我们可以将单变量已实现波动率模型与最近引入的一类基于Wishart和矩阵- f分布的分数驱动已实现协方差模型结合起来。所提出的模型计算简单,在高维估计,并允许完全灵活地选择单变量规格。通过蒙特卡罗研究,我们证明了两步极大似然方法在小样本中提供了准确的参数估计。根据经验,我们发现所提出的模型优于联合估计,随着维度的增加,预测收益变得更加显著。
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