A novel point estimate method for probabilistic power flow considering correlated nodal power

Abstract

With the increasing penetration of wind sources, not only the fluctuation of wind power, but also the correlations among wind farms should be considered in power system analysis. Point estimate method is an effective tool for probabilistic analysis. This paper proposed a novel probabilistic power flow(PPF) algorithm that can tackle dependences among nodal power injections. The proposed PPF algorithm extended three-point estimate method by using Nataf transformation which can deal with multi-variables with incomplete information. The advantage of the algorithm is that the correlation can be precisely taken into account and accurate moments of output variables can be obtained. Accuracy and efficiency of the proposed algorithm has been validated by the comparative tests in a modified IEEE RTS-24 system and a modified IEEE 118-bus system.