Analysis of Relationship amongst Money Supply, Prices and Output in India

Abstract

The paper studies the relationship between Money Supply, Prices and Output by creating a robust VAR Model incorporating the changing trend of the macro-economic variables. The observations were that rate of change of Prices and Money Supply have a direct relationship (in short and long run), rate of change of Price and Private Consumption have an inverse relationship (more significant in long run), and rate of change of Investment and Money Supply have an inverse relationship (significant in long run). The study provides a foundation for understanding of stability and shocks amongst the macro-economic variables which have further scope of exploration in terms of magnitude of absolute change and implicit relationships which exist amongst the variables in the Quantity Theory of Money.