Multi-Scale Predictability of High-Impact Weather in the Battlespace Environment

J. Doyle, C. Reynolds, J. McLay, J. Teixeira, C. Bishop
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Abstract

The objective of this project is to determine the predictability and define the methodologies for effective ensemble prediction of high-impact weather in the battle-space environment. To accomplish this goal, we test and evaluate methodologies for the generation of initial condition perturbations in ensemble forecasts. We also test and evaluate methodologies for the inclusion of model error in ensemble design, specifically testing the impact of stochastic perturbations to the model tendencies produced by the parameterization of deep convection. The first parameters that we examine here are tropical cyclone track forecasts, and upper and lower tropospheric wind speed
战场空间环境中高影响天气的多尺度可预测性
该项目的目标是确定可预见性,并确定在作战空间环境中对高影响天气进行有效综合预测的方法。为了实现这一目标,我们测试和评估了在集合预测中产生初始条件扰动的方法。我们还测试和评估了集成设计中包含模型误差的方法,特别是测试了随机扰动对深层对流参数化产生的模型趋势的影响。我们在这里考察的第一个参数是热带气旋路径预报,以及对流层上层和下层风速
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