A Complex Network Approach to Analyze the Effect of Intermediate Waypoints on Collision Risk Assessment

Abstract

This paper investigates how estimated collision risk in upper airspace varies with changes in underlying airspace network complexity. Direct Route model (which assumes great circle route between entry and exit waypoints) and Intermediate Waypoint model (which uses airwaywaypoint routes between entry and exit waypoints) were used. One month of traffic data (more than 200,000 flights) from 12 countries in the Middle East was analyzed for collision risk estimates, and the airspace network was characterized for several complex network indicators. Results show that intermediate waypoint leads to a significant increase in collision risk estimates. Results also show the correlation between estimated collision risk and specific network complexity measures. From an operational perspective this means that in airspaces with a highly structured airspace, collision risk may be underestimated when using the widely accepted direct route model.