Prediction model of photovoltaic output power based on VMD-EMD-BiLSTM

Abstract

The accuracy of photovoltaic (PV) power prediction is significantly influenced by the high complexity and volatility of the PV sequence. The existing methods for predicting photoelectric power are difficult to effectively mine and analyze the internal variation law of data. To improve the accuracy of PV power prediction, a new method is proposed that first performs variational mode decomposition (VMD) and empirical mode decomposition (EMD), and then establishes a bi-directional long and short-term memory neural network (BiLSTM) for PV output power prediction. The proposed method extracts the amplitude and frequency characteristics of the PV output power series through VMD. After that, the residual term with strong non-stationarity is generated, which still has more sequence characteristics. The residual term is then decomposed by EMD for the second time to extract more features. Finally, the BiLSTM model is established to conduct bidirectional mining for PV power data and predict PV output power. The actual PV data is used to test the experimental results, which show that the proposed VMD-EMD-BiLSTM prediction model has better prediction performance.