Risk Assessment and Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts in Mexico for Indigenous and Women

Abstract

The present article studies the policy, numbers, and costs of disaster risk management (DRM) in Mexico, a country highly exposed to climate change, due to two oceans warming up. The PEISOR methodology facilitates interrelating complex interactions and pressures between the natural and the societal system (P), where dangerous effects (E) occur in extreme events, such as floods, landslides, and drought. The impacts (I) of global warming, the pressure of historical poverty, and vulnerable regions were affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. These societal outcomes (SO) are aggravated by gender and ethnic discrimination. The governmental response (R) has built up an alternative health system with access to medical attention. About DRM against climate catastrophes, loss and damage (L&D) policies prioritized cash transfers to affected people. This policy increased the dependency of poor people but produced electoral benefits for the leading party. Nevertheless, this DRM limits adaptation and resilience-building among social groups living in exposed regions mainly in the South, where indigenous groups suffer from low human development index and extreme poverty. The article also compares the quantitative costs of disasters in Mexico during the last five decades. Growing L&D invoices for the government and affected people occurred predominantly during the last decade. Worsening climate conditions, combined with the COVID-19 pandemic, public insecurity, and extreme poverty, represent survival threats for exposed people, where only a local bottom-up resilience-building may create an integrated DRM. In conclusion, the reactive policy of L&D has raised the electoral support of needed people but limited adaption to deal with extremer climate impacts. The official DRM policy impacts allocated 96% of the disaster budget for reconstruction and emergency management and only 4% for prevention. Especially affected are women, girls, and indigenous people with the highest death toll. Empowering these vulnerable groups would create greater resilience, where training in care economy, and environmental restoration could reduce the risks. The lack of adaptation also created a dependency on foreign countries for climate advice, hurricane tracking, early warnings, and disaster recovery, where affected people are trapped in poverty and often forced to migrate.