Effect of the 2016 OPEC production cut announcement on the default likelihood of the oil industry and commercial banks

Abstract

Using option pricing methodology, we provide evidence the oil and banking industries' default likelihood decreased following OPEC's November 2016 oil production cut announcement. The effect is present within several oil sub-industries and for the banks conducting business in states with the most oil production. In addition, for the oil industry we find the decrease in default likelihood is more pronounced for firms with higher leverage, low financial slack, small market value, and small book-to-market ratios. For commercial banks, banks with higher non-performing assets and provision for loan losses experienced a greater decline in default likelihood. In addition, similar to the oil industry, size and book-to-market are significant determinants of the change in default likelihood.