Towards a HFACS and Bayesian Belief Network Model to Analysis Collision Risk Causal on Ship Pilotage Process

Abstract

The continuous development of the global shipping industry has made ship transportation between various countries more frequent, and ship piloting operations are necessary when ships enter and exit ports. As the collision accident in the process of ship pilotage operation will cause large losses, it is necessary to analyze the risk of ship pilotage. Based on the establishment of the HFACS model of collision accidents for ship piloting operations, this study combined with Bayesian network analysis methods to quantitatively analyze the human errors during ship piloting. First, according to the characteristics of ship pilotage operations, the HFACS model of ship pilotage collision accidents is established. Secondly, rely on expert knowledge to analyze the risk factors in the HFACS model and establish a Bayesian network model for the risk assessment of ship pilotage collision accidents. Finally, combined with ship pilotage accident data and other subjective data, through Bayesian network reasoning, a quantitative assessment of the risk of ship pilotage collision accidents in Shanghai Port was carried out, and the main risk factors and risk casual paths in different stages of ship piloting were analyzed.