A probabilistic approach to analyze and model the simultaneity of power produced by wind turbines in a wind farm

Abstract

The simultaneity of power produced by wind turbines (WTs) as a function of total power of the wind farm (WF) is investigated in the first part of this paper, and subsequently, a probabilistic approach to model the simultaneity of WT power in a WF is proposed. The investigation of the WT power simultaneity is carried out by analyzing measurement data sets. In this regard, the influence of the following aspects on the simultaneity of WT power is investigated and described: the number of WTs, the spatial arrangement of WTs, and the averaging timeframe of the WT power. Afterwards, with the aid of the investigation results, a nonsequential Monte Carlo method is proposed to generate a synthetic set of the WT power with a realistic simultaneity. The synthetic set of the WT power can be applied as input data for further nonsequential Monte Carlo simulations like reliability assessment or power quality evaluation.