Statistical Short-Term Forecasting Of The COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

We have been publishing real-time forecasts of confirmed cases and deaths for COVID-19 from mid-March 2020 onwards, published at www.doornik.com/COVID-19. These forecasts are short-term statistical extrapolations of past and current data. They assume that the underlying trend is informative of short-term developments, without requiring other assumptions of how the SARS-CoV-2 virus is spreading, or whether preventative policies are effective. We provide an overview of the forecasting approach that we use and assess the quality of the forecasts in comparison to those from an epidemiological model.