Study of security trends of the global society based on intelligent data analysis

Abstract

This article is devoted to applying system analysis and data mining methodology to one of the most pressing problems today: studying the security of a global society in a conflicting world. A set of global threats relevant to the first half of the 21st century is considered. These threats have been identified by the United Nations (UN), the World Health Organization (WHO), the World Economic Forum, and other reputable international organizations. As a result of applying the Delphi method to analyze a wide range of threats identified by these organizations, 11 of the most important threats to humanity in the first half of the 21st century were identified. The vulnerabilities of different countries to the impact of the totality of these threats are analyzed. Scenarios for the possible development of a global society during and after the conflict are constructed.