Variance reduction techniques for use with sequential Monte Carlo simulation in bulk power system reliability evaluation

Abstract

Estimation of composite system adequacy indices using sequential Monte Carlo simulation approach with time varying loads at each load bus is computationally quite expensive. Variance reduction techniques (VRT) can be used together with the sequential simulation process to enhance the efficiency of the simulation. This paper discusses two commonly used VRTs-control variates (CV) and antithetic variates (AV) with reference to the sequential simulation method used for adequacy analysis. Case studies are conducted on a representative power system network.