A Mathematical Model Analysis for Estimating Stock Market Price Changes

Abstract

In this paper, different methods for estimation of parameters of Weibull distribution were examined using Mean Square Error (MSE) as a criterion for selecting the best model. The Method of Moments exceeded other methods. In the same circumstance, the estimated results were logically extended to form a matrix that would help in predicting different commodity price processes by exploring the properties of fundamental matrix solution where we obtained predicted stock prices and asset returns for 12 months. Finally, from the fundamental matrix system a theorem was developed and proved to show different levels of changes as it affects stock market in terms of short-run and long-run respectively