Statistical Uncertainty Modelling and Dispatch Control Systems in Power Systems with High Penetrations of Intermittent Power Sources

Abstract

This paper establishes multiple statistical uncertainty models of wind/solar power sources, intermittent power sources (IPSs), and all power sources. Based on that, this paper also adjusts the dispatch control system including how to appropriately select the real-time dispatch timescale. Statistical uncertainty regularity is first concluded over large historical data and a negative exponential function that represents the relationship between the forecasting error and the time-ahead is further employed. Subsequently, from the perspective of power balancing, the dispatch control hierarchies of traditional power systems and power systems with high penetrations of IPSs are compared and analyzed. Simulation results regarding statistical uncertainty models over different penetrations of IPSs and the corresponding real-time dispatch timescale are demonstrated to show the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed models and hierarchy.