Impacts of Behavioral Modeling Assumptions for Complex Adaptive Systems: An Evaluation of an Online Dating Model

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of behavioral modeling assumptions for a Complex Adaptive System (CAS) model. We hypothesize that behavioral models can be overconfident in their predictions due to the challenges of modeling behavior. Supporting this hypothesis, this paper discusses the challenges of modeling behavior, presents a CAS example problem to design an online dating app, models the dating app as a CAS, and investigates the impacts of different behavioral models on the design. This paper shows how similar behavioral models can have a significant impact on the simulation results. This paper highlights the challenge our community faces moving forward with valid behavioral models. Finally, we call for the community at large to address these challenges by collaboratively researching and comparing behavioral models so as to guide future modelers.