Impacts of Possible Chinese 25% Tariff on U.S. Soybeans and Other Agricultural Commodities

Abstract

If China imposes a 25% tariff on U.S. agricultural products, after multi-year adjustments, U.S. exports of soybeans to China will drop 69%, costing the United States and China each $2.5 billion annually. With this tariff, Brazil will export 27% more soybeans to China and annually gain $2.1 billion.