The fluctuations of maize price in years 2010-2018 in Poland

Abstract

. The work determines the range of variability in the price of maize in 2010-2018 using time series decomposition. The nominal price of maize increased from 512 PLN/ton in January 2010 to 713 PLN/ton in December 2018. The decomposition of the time series for maize prices indicates regular seasonal and cyclic fluctuations as well as irregular random fluctuations. The seasonal variability of maize prices is highly statistically significant. In 2018, lowest prices of maize (91.7 % of the annual average) were in October, whereas the highest (107.1 %) in August. Changes in prices of maize in 2010 – 2018 were characterized by a cyclicity of 2 to 4 year-long cycles. Annually, on average, cyclic fluctuations amounted to 62 %, seasonal fluctuations 31 % and random 7 % of the total price variability for maize.