Towards modelling macro influencing factors to address South African energy challenges: A focus on electricity demand and climate change

Abstract

Energy technology implementation or policy projects (TI/PPs) have a large macro level impact on a country and it is imperative that decisions at this level reflect sustainability. South Africa is already experiencing an energy supply and demand challenge. Inexpensive coal-fired energy options and the international focus on alternative energy technologies, to combat climate change, exacerbate this challenge. The question is then whether there is sufficient incentive for South Africa to consider other non-coal energy technologies if a broader sustainable macro level decision making process is adopted. This paper answers this question based on the modelling of energy systems by firstly combining a set of macro level indicators from various sustainability and energy studies. The model then incorporates the indicators and applies the multi attributive utility theory (MAUT) to determine utilities for economic, social, institutional and environmental macro influencing factors (MIFs). Each macro influencing factor's utility is weighted according to specific scenarios; for this study climate change and energy challenge scenarios were specifically investigated. The individual macro factor utilities are then combined to provide an overall macro influencing factor landscape (MIFL) utility. The achieved overall utility is an indication of the energy technology's macro level fit for South Africa, given the scenario constraints. The macro influencing factor landscape (MIFL) model lays the foundation for sustainable energy system decision-making for policy makers and technology managers in the future.