CHAPTER FOUR: Relationship between Bulgarian sovereign credit risk and accounting information

Abstract

We examine the linkages between accounting information and credit default swap spread in Bulgaria. This paper employs a panel data approach including OLS model and VAR model. We use sovereign credit default swap spread data for the period reaching from the first quarter of 2009 to the fourth quarter of 2016. We apply 3 month Euribor rate as an indicator for riskfree rate. The final sample consists of twenty separate corporate entities from various industries in Bulgaria. The results reveal that accounting information is a relevant source of information to the credit markets. So we may conclude that accounting information is proved to provide incremental influence to the probability of default in Bulgaria. Moreover, CDS spreads has a significant relationship with other accounting and market variables. Key-Words: accounting information, sovereign CDS, panel data, capital markets