Daily Total Wind Energy Estimation by Using Weather Condition

Abstract

Estimation of the generated wind power is one of the tasks for wind power plant (WPP) companies and these estimations are sent to electricity management system to schedule the electric power plants. There is a transaction trend from traditional carbon-based generation to renewable electricity generation due to their environmental impact. While the generation of energy by traditional methods can be easily controlled, it is not possible to control the generation from renewable sources, because it depends on nature. This uncertainty of the power which will be generated is a disturbing factor for the generation/consumption balance of electricity. In this study, the daily total wind energy estimation is presented for two wind power plants which are in Turkey. While humidity, air pressure, temperature, wind speed, wind direction, season and historical energy generations are selected the system inputs, daily generated wind energy is the output. Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) is considered as forecast method. The normalised mean absolute error (NMAE) values of WPP1 and WPP2 are found as 13.75% and 10.23%, respectively.