A novel discrete grey model with hyperbolic sinusoidal term and its applications of the regional gross domestic product forecasting

Abstract

An accurate forecast of Neijiang's regional gross domestic product is vital important for the construction of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle to some extent. In this work, a new grey model is proposed and applied to the regional gross domestic product of Neijiang city. The Neijiang city is in a superior geographical position in the construction of Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle. In this paper, firstly a discrete grey prediction model with hyperbolic sine driving term is proposed based on the corresponding continuous model. Secondly, the recursive function of the discrete model is deduced through the recursive formula, and then the parameter values of the model are calculated by the least square method. Finally, the trend of the regional gross domestic product of Neijiang city is predicted by the new model along with other forecasting models. By comparing results of these models, it is proved that the grey discrete model with hyperbolic sine driving term has higher accuracy.