The challenges of forecasting under current conditions

Abstract

The issues of forecasting in modern conditions using mathematical models, the development of which is the main specialization of the Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, are considered. A comparative analysis of forecasting methods (IMF and Central Bank) using mathematical tools is given. The bias of the providers of economic forecasts using these forecasts to manipulate public opinion is shown. Their inadequacy during periods of perturbations in economic systems is substantiated. Alternative methods for the analysis of economic systems are proposed. The fundamental importance of compensatory measures that help reduce the negative effect of sanctions and promote economic development is noted. The main task of Russian forecasters is to actively counter the aggressive information flow.