A GIS‐based approach to mapping probabilities of river bank erosion: regulated River Tummel, Scotland

Abstract

This study explores the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques for mapping river channel planform change and bank erosion probability. The method used is primarily based on an approach developed by Graf (Graf, W.L. 1984. ‘A probabilistic approach to the spatial assessment of river channel instability’, Water Resour. Res., 20(7), 953–962), which proposed that bank erosion probability could be determined for any given cell on a floodplain by taking into account (i) its distance laterally and in the upstream direction to the active river channel, and (ii) a value representing flood magnitudes for the given period. In this study, Graf's method is refined by using a GIS approach and by incorporating the influence of geomorphic variables, such as river bank morphology, sediment type and floodplain vegetation, on bank erosion rates. In addition, the technique is applied to a wandering gravel-bed river of roughly 80 m width, representing a different type and size of river to that used in Graf's study. Thus, the wider applicability of the technique is tested. In addition, the analysis here covers only a short time scale (1988–1994) compared with that used by Graf. The high temporal resolution of this study is enabled by the use of aerial photography and also by the substantial channel changes that occurred within this time period as a result of several high magnitude flood events. The results of the study indicate the usefulness and validity of the approach, particularly with regard to floodplain erosion hazard mapping and the assessment of the effects of altered flood regimes and land use. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.