Forecasting Performance In Iraqi Stock Exchange For The Oil Price Throw The GM (1,2) Model And The Impacts On Economic Growth

Abstract

Iraq's oil industry is the country's main source of income. Iraq's manufacturing sector has always been heavily dependent on the country's oil exports. Since the end of the Iraq War, Iraq has expanded its output and is currently the region's second-largest producer. For this investigation, the grey model was run using data on the monthly international price of Iraqi oil from October 2020 through September 2022. Researchers evaluated the MAPE and accuracy rate to choose which model to employ for oil price forecasting, and we found that the GM(2,1) model was the best fit for capturing the dynamics of the Iraqi oil market (precision rate = 96%, MAPE = 4%).