Improving individual predictions using social networks assortativity

Abstract

Social networks are known to be assortative with respect to many attributes, such as age, weight, wealth, level of education, ethnicity and gender. This can be explained by influences and homophilies. Independently of its origin, this assortativity gives us information about each node given its neighbors. Assortativity can thus be used to improve individual predictions in a broad range of situations, when data are missing or inaccurate. This paper presents a general framework based on probabilistic graphical models to exploit social network structures for improving individual predictions of node attributes. Using this framework, we quantify the assortativity range leading to an accuracy gain in several situations. We finally show how specific characteristics of the network can improve performances further. For instance, the gender assortativity in real-world mobile phone data changes significantly according to some communication attributes. In this case, individual predictions with 75% accuracy are improved by up to 3%.