Fault forecasting of missile equipment based on improved UGM (1, m, w) model

Abstract

Fault forecasting is very important to establish accurate maintenance support plan, reduce maintenance support cost, improve operational readiness rate and mission dependability rate, even avoid the huge loss for missile equipment; To resolve the problem of new-style missile equipment fault forecasting difficultly, which is induced by the complexity of system compose, fuzziness of configuration connection and incompleteness and uncertainty of character parameters, the paper put forward a new multi-variables metabolism unequal interval weight grey forecasting model (MUGM (1, m, w)) by combining the background value weight and metabolism idea. Finally the example results proved the MUGM (1, m, w) model have better forecast precision.