Modeling the consumer of the future — A dynamic simulation approach

Abstract

Consumer behavior is usually modeled by past dynamics, extracted from historical records. This paper proposes a new paradigm: the model of the consumer of the future, subject to patterns, choices, technology and possibilities never ever experienced - and therefore not obtainable from the past. Furthermore, we present a new model, based on dynamic simulation techniques, able to capture the future evolutions and consumer's reactions. A case study with the Brazilian pre-salt oil exploitation, its impacts on country's economy - and, therefore, on energy consumption patterns - illustrates the potentiality of the described concepts and models.