Prediction of past unsolved terrorist attacks

Abstract

In this study, a novel model is proposed to predict perpetuators of some terrorist events which are remain unsolved. The CPM learns from similarities between terrorist attacks and their crime attributes then puts them in appropriate clusters. Solved and unsolved attacks are gathered in the same - all linked to each other - “umbrella” clusters; then CPM classifies all related terrorist events which are expected to belong to one single terrorist group. The developed model is applied to a real crime dataset, which includes solved and unsolved terrorist attacks and crimes in Turkey between 1970 and 2005. CPM predictions produced significant precision value for big terrorist groups and reasonable recall values for small terrorist groups.