Development of Algorithms for Choosing the Best Time Series Models and Neural Networks to Predict COVID-19 Cases

Abstract

Time series analysis became one of the most investigated fields of knowledge during spreading of the COVID-19 around the world. The problem of modeling and forecasting infection cases of COVID-19, deaths, recoveries and other parameters is still urgent. Purpose of the study. Our article is devoted to investigation of classical statistical and neural network models that can be used for forecasting COVID-19 cases. Materials and methods. We discuss neural network model NNAR, compare it with linear and nonlinear models (BATS, TBATS, Holt's linear trend, ARIMA, classical epidemiological SIR model). In our article we discuss the Epemedic.Network algorithm using the R programming language. This algorithm takes the time series as input data and chooses the best model from SIR, statistical models and neural network model. The model selection criterion is the MAPE error. We consider the implementation of our algorithm for analysis of time series for COVID -19 spreading in Chelyabinsk region, and predicting the possible peak of the third wave using three possible scenarios. We mention that the considered algorithm can work for any time se-ries, not only for epidemiological ones. Results. The developed algorithm helped to identify the pat-tern of COVID -19 infection for Chelyabinsk region using the models realized as parts of the consi-dered algorithm. It should be noted that the considered models make it possible to form short-term forecasts with sufficient accuracy. We show that the increase in the number of neurons led to in-creasing accuracy, as there are other cases where the error is reduced in case of reducing the number of neurons, and this depends on COVID -19 infection spreading pattern. Conclusion. Hence, to get a very accurate forecast, we recommend re-running the algorithm weekly. For medium-range fore-casting, only the NNAR model can be used from among those considered but it also allows to get good forecasts only with horizon 1–2 weeks.