The Cybernetic Paradigm

G. Mezey
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Risk-based decision-making in reducing security risks is based on practical approach, usually a combination of rational and cognitive theories. In riskmanagement analytic, cybernetic, cognitive paradigms can be applied. The Analytic Paradigm has the potential to clarify a decision, but cannot guarantee an improved decision-making. Under the Analytic Paradigm it is asserted, that someone or a group will actively select from among distinct options in a stable decision environment so as to achieve a set of goals. Recently widely recognized, that this assumption is farfetched from reality. The Cybernetic Paradigm has been increasingly in use for group decision support systems. This paradigm focuses onto uncertainty control and not optimization. Qualitative modelling is becoming central instead of quantitative modelling and expert knowledge based systems are in the core.
控制论范式
降低安全风险的风险决策基于实践方法,通常是理性理论和认知理论的结合。在风险管理中,可以应用分析、控制论和认知范式。分析范式有澄清决策的潜力,但不能保证改进的决策。在分析范式下,一个人或一个群体会在一个稳定的决策环境中,从不同的选项中积极地进行选择,以实现一组目标。最近人们普遍认识到,这种假设与现实相去甚远。控制论范式已越来越多地用于群体决策支持系统。这种模式侧重于不确定性控制,而不是优化。定性建模取代定量建模成为核心,基于专家知识的系统是核心。
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