Value Added in Motion: Macroeconomic Implications of Energy Price Trajectories

Abstract

Taking a 2035 horizon, we examine how world energy consumption and emission patterns will be shaped by the changing demand and technological capabilities of different regions. We combine a convergence model fitting three production factors (capital, labour and energy) and two factor-specific productivities, along with a dynamic CGE model of the world economy. We consider three possible “worlds†with very different energy scarcity, and how Copenhagen pledges change economic agents’ calculus in each of these three situations. We find that the most dramatic changes in terms of location of value added are to be expected from the intrinsic differences among the three considered “worlds†, not so much in terms of economic impact of environmental pledges.