Connectedness Among Economic Policy Uncertainties: Evidence from the Time and Frequency Domain Perspectives

Jinxin Cui, Huiwen Zou
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引用次数: 3

Abstract

Abstract This paper investigates the frequency connectedness among economic policy uncertainties of G20 countries using the novel frequency connectedness proposed by Barunik and Krehlik (2018) which can depict the dynamic connectedness not only over time but also across different frequencies. The empirical results obtained in this paper demonstrate that, firstly, the connectedness among economic policy uncertainties is significant, and the spillover effects during the financial crisis and the post-financial crisis period are stronger than the pre-financial crisis period. Secondly, the United States, France, and Australia are the main net-transmitters of the economic policy uncertainty spillovers while Brazil, Italy, Mexico, and Russia act as the main net-recipients of the spillovers. Thirdly, the major international events may significantly enhance the spillover transmissions of economic policy uncertainty among different countries, thus increasing the magnitude of the total connectedness. Finally, the economic policy uncertainty spillovers are mainly transmitted in the short term, i.e., 1∼4 months instead of longer time horizons in terms of the magnitude of the frequency connectedness measures. The findings of this paper not only have profound theoretical and practical significance but also provide several significant implications for the policymakers, supervision agents, international traders, and various investors.
经济政策不确定性之间的连通性:来自时域和频域视角的证据
本文利用Barunik和Krehlik(2018)提出的新型频率连通性研究了G20国家经济政策不确定性之间的频率连通性,该方法不仅可以描述随时间的动态连通性,还可以描述不同频率之间的动态连通性。本文的实证结果表明,首先,经济政策不确定性之间的连通性显著,金融危机时期和金融危机后时期的溢出效应强于金融危机前时期。其次,美国、法国和澳大利亚是经济政策不确定性溢出效应的主要净传播者,而巴西、意大利、墨西哥和俄罗斯是经济政策不确定性溢出效应的主要净接受者。第三,重大国际事件可能显著增强经济政策不确定性在不同国家之间的外溢传导,从而增加总体连通性的大小。最后,经济政策不确定性溢出效应主要在短期内传播,即1 ~ 4个月,而不是更长的时间范围。本文的研究结果不仅具有深刻的理论和实践意义,而且对政策制定者、监管机构、国际贸易商和各类投资者具有重要的启示意义。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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