Irregular Migrants in Ukraine: Attempt at Quantitative Evaluation

Abstract

Ukraine is in a similar position to many other countries in the world in regards to the challenges in accurately estimating migrants irregularly staying in the country. The lack of reliable estimates has for a long time prevented the government authorities from planning an adequate response to irregular migration in the country, including the development of regularisation programmes. Furthermore, the lack of reliable estimates also results in the replication of obviously exaggerated information on the number of irregular migrants, promotes the spread of migrant-related phobias and allows for irregular migration to be misused in political dialogue. The purpose of the article is to form an estimate of the number of migrants (foreign citizens and stateless persons) staying in Ukraine without legal grounds. The novelty of the study lies in the creation of a scientifically sound algorithm for estimating the number of migrants with unregulated status. The presented assessment is based on the data of official statistics of the state executive authorities of Ukraine using the achievements of international experience and the results of surveys conducted during the study realized by the International Organization for Migration in 2020. Research methods: analysis of documents - regulations, statistics, research materials; sociological methods; system of methods for estimating the volume of unregulated migration (methods of multiplication, coefficients, demographic method, method of re-accounting, method of building social networks, etc.); comparative method. An assessment of unregulated migration trends in Ukraine is made on the basis of official data. It is established that in Ukraine there is a significant increase in the number of detected migrants with unregulated status by the State Migration Service of Ukraine, an increase in the number of potential migrants with unregulated status who were denied entry by the State Border Guard Service and a tendency to stabilization in the number of detainees. A system of methods for estimating the number of migrants with unregulated status is proposed, and, based on its application, it is established that the corresponding number in Ukraine at the end of 2019 ranged from 37.7 to 60.9 thousand people. An algorithm for estimating the number of migrants with unregulated status in the coming years is developed.