Forecasting of Radar Technologies Using Patent Information

Abstract

Technology analysis is an integrated process that includes varies methods and techniques. The change in radar technologies has revealed that this technology area should be examined carefully. In this study, one of the time series method was chosen to create the technology forecasting model for radar technologies. How the state of radar technologies has changed over time is analyzed with ARIMA model. Patent databases are reliable, comprehensive, explanatory and open source databases. Therefore, patent databases were chosen as data sources while creating radar forecasting model. R software language and libraries were used in the stages of creating and testing the model. The structure of the patent data was revealed by descriptive statistics, then tests and transformations were performed to fulfill the requirements of the ARIMA method. At the end of the model creation and testing phases, ARIMA(1,2,1) was obtained as the best model with the highest accuracy.