A scenario analysis for a challenging energy policy in Italy

Abstract

The paper aims at analyzing a possible evolution of the Italian power generation mix. A scenario, ranging to 2030, has been analyzed in order to focus on the Italian energy policy whose long-term objective is a “25-25-50” electric energy generation mix (25% renewable sources, 25% nuclear and 50% fossil fuels). This scenario analysis has been carried out using the multi-regional model MATISSE (Markal-TIMES based) of the Italian power system. In this paper, the results of the study will be presented, showing, in line with the three “pillars” of the EU policy, how reaching the nuclear and renewable (RES) development targets affects fossil fuel dependency (security of supply), production costs (competitiveness) and CO2 emissions (sustainability).