Construction of Ecological Conservation and Assessment of Its Impact on Environment

Y. Song
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Abstract

In recent years, environmental problems caused by global warming--- melting glaciers, rising sea levels, frequent wildfires and the death of large coral reefs, moved from the pages of the books to reality. To solve the problem, we develop several mathematical models, using both qualitative and quantitative methods, analyzing the importance of each influencing factor, finally build evaluation model of ecological environment and nature reserve.Firstly, in order to make a comparative analysis of the environmental conditions before and after the restoration of Saihanba, I collect the data of forest coverage rate, water conservation, PM2.5, oxygen release and carbon dioxide absorption of Saihanba in 60 years from 1962 to 2021, establishing Entropy Weight Method and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution model (EWM-TOPSIS). Obtained that water conservation was the index with the largest weight, forest coverage rate is the index with the least weight, and the ecological environment in this area is the best in 2021 and the worst in 1962, indicating that saihanba restoration plays a significant role in improving the environment in this area.Secondly, I analyze the correlation between saihanba and Beijing's ecological environment, and qualitatively judge the degree of impact between the two. Then I take five ecological environment indexes of Saihanba as independent variables and four indexes of Beijing's anti-sandstorm ability as dependent variables of four Multiple Linear Regression models (MlR), which helps me make quantitative judgment, and finally get the conclusion that the improvement of the ecological environment of Saihanba will promote the anti-sandstorm ability of Beijing.After modelling, I also conduct sensitivity analysis to experiment the sensitivity of some parameters included in my models. In the end, I summarize strengths and weaknesses and a brief conclusion is also presented.
生态文明建设及其环境影响评价
近年来,由全球变暖引起的环境问题——冰川融化、海平面上升、频繁的野火和大型珊瑚礁的死亡——从书本上变成了现实。为了解决这一问题,我们建立了几个数学模型,采用定性和定量相结合的方法,分析了各个影响因素的重要性,最终建立了生态环境和自然保护区的评价模型。首先,为了对塞罕坝恢复前后的环境状况进行对比分析,收集了1962 - 2021年60年间塞罕坝森林覆盖率、涵水量、PM2.5、氧气释放量、二氧化碳吸纳量等数据,建立了熵权法和理想溶液相似度排序偏好法(EWM-TOPSIS)。得到水源涵养是权重最大的指标,森林覆盖率是权重最小的指标,该地区生态环境在2021年是最好的,1962年是最差的,表明塞罕坝恢复对该地区环境的改善作用显著。其次,分析塞罕坝与北京生态环境的相关性,定性判断二者的影响程度。然后将塞罕坝的5个生态环境指标作为自变量,将北京市抗沙尘暴能力的4个指标作为因变量,运用4个多元线性回归模型(Multiple Linear Regression model, MlR)进行定量判断,最终得出塞罕坝生态环境的改善将促进北京市抗沙尘暴能力的提高。建模完成后,我还进行了敏感性分析,实验了模型中包含的一些参数的敏感性。最后总结了本文的优势和不足,并给出了简要的结论。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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