Water Stress on U.S. Power Production at Decadal Time Horizons

arXiv: Economics Pub Date : 2015-11-01 DOI:10.2172/1339441
Poulomi Ganguli, Devashish Kumar, A. Ganguly
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

Thermoelectric power production at risk, owing to current and projected water scarcity and rising stream temperatures, is assessed for the contiguous United States at decadal scales. Regional water scarcity is driven by climate variability and change, as well as by multi-sector water demand. While a planning horizon of zero to about thirty years is occasionally prescribed by stakeholders, the challenges to risk assessment at these scales include the difficulty in delineating decadal climate trends from intrinsic natural or multiple model variability. Current generation global climate or earth system models are not credible at the spatial resolutions of power plants, especially for surface water quantity and stream temperatures, which further exacerbates the assessment challenge. Population changes, which are difficult to project, cannot serve as adequate proxies for changes in the water demand across sectors. The hypothesis that robust assessments of power production at risk are possible, despite the uncertainties, has been examined as a proof of concept. An approach is presented for delineating water scarcity and temperature from climate models, observations and population storylines, as well as for assessing power production at risk by examining geospatial correlations of power plant locations within regions where the usable water supply for energy production happens to be scarcer and warmer. Our analyses showed that in the near term, more than 200 counties are likely to be exposed to water scarcity in the next three decades. Further, we noticed that stream gauges in more than five counties in the 2030s and ten counties in the 2040s showed a significant increase in water temperature, which exceeded the power plant effluent temperature threshold set by the EPA. Power plants in South Carolina, Louisiana, and Texas are likely to be vulnerable owing to climate-driven water stresses.
用水压力对美国电力生产的十年时间跨度
由于当前和预计的水资源短缺和河流温度上升,对美国邻近地区的热电生产进行了年代际评估。区域缺水是由气候变率和变化以及多部门的水需求驱动的。虽然利益相关者偶尔会规定零至大约30年的规划期限,但在这些尺度上进行风险评估的挑战包括难以根据内在的自然或多模式变率描绘十年气候趋势。现有的全球气候或地球系统模型在电厂的空间分辨率下不可信,特别是地表水的数量和水流的温度,这进一步加剧了评估的挑战。人口变化难以预测,不能充分反映各部门用水需求的变化。尽管存在不确定性,但对处于危险中的电力生产进行可靠评估是可能的,这一假设已作为概念的证明进行了检验。本文提出了一种方法,通过气候模型、观测和人口故事线来描绘缺水和温度,以及通过检查发电厂位置的地理空间相关性来评估处于危险中的电力生产,这些发电厂位于能源生产可用水供应碰巧更稀缺和更温暖的地区。我们的分析表明,在短期内,未来30年有200多个县可能面临缺水问题。此外,我们注意到,20世纪30年代有超过5个县和40年代有10个县的水流测量仪显示水温显著升高,超过了美国环保署设定的电厂出水温度阈值。南卡罗来纳州、路易斯安那州和德克萨斯州的发电厂很可能因为气候导致的水资源紧张而变得脆弱。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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