A Simple Deterministic Model for the Spread of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in Sarawak

Abstract

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is considered a common disease among children. However, HFMD recent outbreaks in Sarawak had caused many death particularly children below the age of ten. In this study we are building a simple deterministic model based on the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model to predict the number of infected and the duration of an outbreak when it occurs. Our findings show that the disease spread quite rapidly and the parameter that may be able to control that would be the number of susceptible persons. We hope the model will allow public health personnel to plan intervention in an effective manner in order to reduce the effect of the disease in the coming outbreak.