Inflation: Why So Low For So Long

Abstract

US inflation has been subdued for well over two decades, as in all the major, mature industrial economies. This is not a recent phenomenon, and is not due to the lagged impact of the 2008 financial panic. Indeed, whether measured by the consumer price index (CPI) or the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) favorite personal consumption price deflator (PCE), core inflation, which excludes the more volatile food and energy categories, has been stuck in a 1% to 3% range in the US since 1994 and into 2018…