Regional Interdependence of the Japan REIT Market: A Heteroscedasticity-Robust Time Series Approach

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamic interdependence between the stock returns of regionally disjoint Japanese real estate investment trusts (REITs), where the property type and a market return are controlled. We take a multivariate time series approach with the error term being allowed to have conditional heteroscedasticity of unknown form. We find significant spillover effects from central to local areas in conditional mean, a potential signal of arbitrage opportunities. The spillover effects have become stronger after the COVID-19 crisis for the office and hotel sectors, but not for the residential sector. This contrast suggests that a geographic diversification strategy within residential REIT securities should be more effective than that within office or hotel, especially during a period of turmoil.