Central Asia after Fifteen Years of Transition: Growth, Regional Cooperation, and Policy Choices

Abstract

This paper presents a coherent and systematic analysis of the collapse and subsequent revival of the Central Asian republics since 1990. The focus is on the pattern of growth and structural changes during the cycle of decline and subsequent revival in the Central Asian republics, which have yet to be adequately analysed in the literature on transition. The paper relates economic performance to initial conditions, country characteristics and policies. Within this framework, it proposes a simple typology of policies (including a new “type III” set of policies on regional cooperation and industrial competitiveness) and relates them to the cycle of decline and revival. It goes on to examine the medium-term prospects for and policy needs of the Central Asian republics.