An algorithm of the loss risk assessment in the oil production in case of electric submersible motor failure

Abstract

The present paper focuses on the risk assessment of losses in the oil production system in case of a failure of electric submersible motors which are parts of electric centrifugal pump units because of internal and external over voltage impact. This work proposes an assessment algorithm of the risk dynamics with the help of fuzzy set theory. The algorithm is based on an analysis of the probability characteristics of reliability, the kind and statistics of impact, and also it includes consideration of technical and economic indicators of the oil production facility.