La Inviabilidad De Los Regímenes De Pensiones De Reparto En Países Que Aún Gozan Del Dividendo Poblacional: El Caso De Colombia (Pay-As-You-Go Pension Systems Unviability in Countries that Enjoy the Demographic Dividend: The Case of Colombia)

Abstract

Spanish Abstract: Este articulo argumenta que, en paises emergentes, como Colombia, la combinacion de la transicion demografica con una alta informalidad del mercado laboral hace inviable la existencia de un regimen de pensiones de reparto. En teoria, un pais como Colombia tiene aun una poblacion joven y esta, por lo tanto, “gozando” del llamado Bono o Dividendo Demografico. En estas condiciones, cuenta con una relacion entre la poblacion economicamente activa y los adultos en edad de retiro relativamente elevada, lo que deberia permitir que los trabajadores activos puedan durante algun tiempo mas financiar con sus cotizaciones las pensiones de los adultos mayores. En Colombia, dicha relacion es de casi siete trabajadores activos por cada adulto mayor de 65 anos. Esta elevada relacion es lo que permite la llamada “solidaridad intergeneracional”. Pero en la realidad, debido a la informalidad, solo hay dos trabajadores formales que cotizan a la seguridad social en pensiones por cada adulto mayor. En esas condiciones, aun si se adoptasen a la brevedad todas las medidas necesarias para incrementar radicalmente la formalidad laboral, cuando dichas medidas tuviesen efecto alguno en Colombia, la relacion entre activos y adultos mayores habra caido significativamente y, muy seguramente, Colombia habra ya perdido su dividendo demografico. Como consecuencia, los jovenes, que hoy son solidarios con los mayores, no tendran quienes sean solidarios con ellos al llegar al retiro laboral. English Abstract: This article argues that in emergent countries, such as Colombia, the combination of the demographic transition process with the country's high levels of labor market informality makes pay-as-you-go pension systems unviable. In theory, this country's population is still relatively young and as a consequence is enjoying the so-called demographic dividend. Given its demographic composition, Colombia still has a high ratio between the economically active population and those 65 years old and more, which in principle would permit that workers’ contributions finance the pensions of the retired. Such ratio, which is currently close to seven, is what makes it possible the so-called intergenerational solidarity of the young with the elders. Unfortunately, such solidarity is neither sustainable in the future nor feasible even in the present should a country expect reasonable levels of pension coverage. For the ratio of workers to elders will fall to four around 2040 and to two around the year 2060. But what is really critical for a PAYG system is that Colombia’s labor market informality reduces such relation from seven to two today. In those circumstances, even if strong measures were taken now to reduce labor market informality, given the time lag required for them to formalize the labor market, the aging of the population would hardly increase the active workers to the elder ratio. This means that Colombia would have likely lost the demographic dividend. Consequently, those young workers who are being currently supportive of the elderly will have no one to be supportive with them as they age.