Comment on Gali and Rabanal's "Technology shocks and aggregate fluctuations: how well does the RBC model fit postwar U.S. data?"

Staff Report Pub Date : 2004-12-01 DOI:10.21034/sr.338
Ellen R. McGrattan
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引用次数: 69

Abstract

Gali and Rabanal provide statistical evidence that, in their view, puts into question the real business cycle paradigm in favor of the sticky-price paradigm. I demonstrate that their statistical procedure is easily misled in that they would reach the same conclusions even if their data had been simulated from an RBC model. I also demonstrate that sticky-price models do a poor job generating U.S.-like business cycles with only shocks to technology, the federal funds rate, and government consumption. This explains why Gali and Rabanal need large unobserved shocks to preferences and to the degree of monopoly power.
对加利和拉巴纳尔的《技术冲击和总体波动:RBC模型与战后美国数据的拟合程度如何?》
加利和拉巴纳尔提供了统计证据,在他们看来,这些证据质疑了真正的商业周期范式,而支持粘性价格范式。我证明他们的统计程序很容易被误导,即使他们的数据是从RBC模型中模拟出来的,他们也会得出同样的结论。我还证明,粘性价格模型在产生类似美国的商业周期方面做得很差,只有技术、联邦基金利率和政府消费受到冲击。这就解释了为什么加利和拉巴纳尔需要对偏好和垄断权力程度进行巨大的、未被观察到的冲击。
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