Konsistensi Sistem Prakiraan Iklim Musiman Menggunakan Indikator ENSO di Daerah Tipe Iklim D3 dan D4 Kabupaten Lombok Tengah

Journal of Soil Quality and Management Pub Date : 2023-03-19 DOI:10.29303/jsqm.v2i1.16

Lara Miga Wahyuni, Fahrudin Fahrudin, Mahrup Mahrup

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Abstract

The purpose of this study was to determine the consistency of seasonal climate forecasts using the ENSO phenomenon. The ENSO indicator categorized with El Nini, Neutral and La Nina were coorelated to rainfall categorized with Below Normal, normal and above normal. The research was carried out in the D3 dan D4 type of climate in ccentral Lombok regency. The method used in this research is descriptive method, which is a method aimed at solving problems by collecting data, compiling, analyzing, interpreting data, and drawing conclusions. This research was conducted in Central Lombok in climate types D3 and D4 covering the areas of Kopang, Mantang, Praya, Puyung, Pringgarata, Penujak, Mujur, Pujut, and Janapria. Using monthly rainfall data for ± 50 years from 1970-2019. Rainfall data were taken at Kopang, Mantang, Praya, Puyung, Pringgarata stations for type D3 and Penujak, Mujur, Pujut, and Janapriafor type D4. SOI data can be accessed at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soi2.shtml. The results showed that from 1970-2019 (50 years) there was a consistent value in all areas that were predicted, namely above 50% and inconsistency below 50%. Consistency describes how accurate the results of the forecast are. If the percentage of the consistency value is above 50%, it means that it is better to predict using the forecasting method by looking for consistency than using the average. Therefore, if you use a forecasting system, if an El Nino phenomenon occurs there will be a shortage of water, you can adjust the planting time, prepare irrigation water first, reduce the planting area, and delay the planting time first.Keywords: Climate Variations, SOI, Rainfall, Climate D3 and D4

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本研究的目的是利用ENSO现象确定季节气候预报的一致性。ENSO指标分为厄尔尼诺、中性和拉尼娜，与降雨量分为低于正常、正常和高于正常。研究在龙目岛中部D3和D4型气候条件下进行。本研究使用的方法是描述性方法，即通过收集数据、汇编、分析、解释数据、得出结论，以解决问题为目的的方法。本研究在龙目岛中部进行，气候类型为D3和D4，覆盖Kopang、Mantang、Praya、Puyung、Pringgarata、Penujak、Mujur、Pujut和Janapria等地区。使用1970-2019年±50年的月降雨量数据。D3型在Kopang、Mantang、Praya、Puyung、Pringgarata站采集，D4型在Penujak、Mujur、Pujut和janapria站采集。SOI数据可以在http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soi2.shtml上访问。结果表明:1970—2019年(50 a)，各区域预测值一致，即在50%以上，在50%以下不一致。一致性描述的是预测结果的准确性。如果一致性值的百分比大于50%，则意味着使用寻找一致性的预测方法进行预测比使用平均值更好。因此，如果使用预报系统，如果出现厄尔尼诺现象就会缺水，可以调整种植时间，先准备灌溉水，减少种植面积，先推迟种植时间。关键词:气候变化，SOI，降雨，气候D3和D4

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Journal of Soil Quality and Management

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