A model of integration among prediction tools: applied study to road freight transportation

RAUSP Revista de Administracao da Universidade de Sao Paulo Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI:10.1016/j.rausp.2016.09.005

Henrique Dias Blois , Ricardo Silveira Martins

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

This study has developed a scenery analysis model which has integrated decision-making tools on investments: prospective scenarios (Grumbach Method) and systems dynamics (hard modeling), with the innovated multivariate analysis of experts. It was designed through analysis and simulation scenarios and showed which are the most striking events in the study object as well as highlighted the actions could redirect the future of the analyzed system. Moreover, predictions are likely to be developed through the generated scenarios. The model has been validated empirically with road freight transport data from state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The results showed that the model contributes to the analysis of investment because it identifies probabilities of events that impact on decision making, and identifies priorities for action, reducing uncertainties in the future. Moreover, it allows an interdisciplinary discussion that correlates different areas of knowledge, fundamental when you wish more consistency in creating scenarios.

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预测工具集成模型:在公路货物运输中的应用研究

本研究建立了一个景观分析模型，该模型结合了投资决策工具:前瞻性情景(Grumbach法)和系统动力学(硬模型)，并采用了创新的专家多变量分析方法。它是通过分析和模拟场景来设计的，显示了研究对象中最引人注目的事件，并突出了可以改变被分析系统未来的动作。此外，预测很可能是通过生成的情景来发展的。用巴西南里奥格兰德州的公路货运数据对模型进行了实证验证。结果表明，该模型有助于投资分析，因为它确定了影响决策的事件的概率，并确定了行动的优先级，减少了未来的不确定性。此外，它允许将不同领域的知识联系起来进行跨学科的讨论，当您希望在创建场景时更加一致时，这是非常重要的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

RAUSP Revista de Administracao da Universidade de Sao Paulo

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审稿时长

16 weeks