Day-Ahead Generation Schedule of Wind-Thermal-Storage System Considering Prediction Error

Abstract

In general, the power system reserves some reserve capacity to balance the deviation of load forecast or wind power. If this reserve capacity is not properly prepared, the power system may be in a dangerous state. In this paper, a day-ahead generation schedule of wind-thermal-storage system considering prediction error of wind power and load is proposed to ensure the security of this reserve capacity, as well as, which effectively coordinates the economy and safety of the day-ahead generation schedule. The actual value is regarded as the sum of the predicted value and its deviation for wind power and load in the proposed method. Among them, the predicted deviation is balanced and tracked by the automatic generation control (AGC) unit, and its output active power and reserved reserve capacity are modeled. What's more, the AGC has sufficient adjustable upper and lower limits to balance the electric power by applying constraints, and has the ability to track the fluctuation of the prediction deviation. Furthermore, since the prediction deviation is a random number, the model with random parameters is transformed into a deterministic model through a robust peer-to-peer model to verify the effect in the extreme scenario, as well as, a distributed energy storage device is introduced to promote wind power consumption and optimize the system operation economy. Finally, in an IEEE 30 node system, the background of high proportion of wind power connected to the power system is set, and the security and economy of reserve capacity under the extreme scenario are analyzed through the method proposed in this paper.