Forecasting Models for Passengers Evacuation's Characteristics from an Airplane in Emergencies on the Ground

Abstract

The article presents the results of the research devoted to the development of a model for predicting the characteristics of the evacuation process of passengers and crew members from an airplane in emergency situations on the ground. The model is based on a system-dynamic approach. On the basis of a system analysis, the main characteristics of this process are chosen and the cause-and-effect relationships between them are identified. These characteristics and links are used to build a formalized model, which is presented as a system of differential equations. Using the developed model at various time intervals, computational experiments were carried out to determine the values of the characteristics of the process of evacuating passengers and crew members from an airplane in emergencies on the ground. The research results are supposed to be applied in information systems at some stages of the life cycle of aviation systems, for example, for making decisions in the design of advanced airplanes.